Form and rules
How it works
Must have + past participle expresses a strong positive deduction about the past.
Can't/couldn't have + past participle expresses a strong negative deduction.
Might/may/could have + past participle expresses a possible past explanation.
These forms are about inference, not unreal conditionals, though some of the same modal-perfect forms appear elsewhere.
Use evidence in the context to choose the strength of certainty.